How Much We Lost in the Crash of '08

According to Census Bureau Historical tables, we are just now recovering income lost in the cataclysmic Crash of 2008.  The destruction of family earnings took us back to 1996 levels, undoing all the gains of the Clinton years, ending in the brutal destruction during Bush's last year in office. 

The numbers below really understate the extent of destruction as they only reflect the effect on personal income and don't really reflect the loss of wealth that took place due to crashing home values and stock prices, pensions frozen or lost, and businesses bankrupted.  I broke down the Table Data into the years of the Administrations, giving the first year of each president to his predecessor, since any new policy or budget is not set until after a year in office.  Consider the data below showing change in Mean Income Received by Each Fifth and Top 5 Percent of Families.

 

Administration	Lowest fifth	Second fifth	Third fifth	Fourth fifth	Highest fifth	Top 5 percent
Clinton	23.56%	17.63%	16.66%	15.99%	20.44%	23.66%
Bush	-6.72%	-3.44%	-1.75%	-1.13%	-1.93%	-4.10%
Obama	-5.09%	-3.71%	-2.60%	-1.95%	-0.14%	1.27%
Bush 2001-2007	-2.15%	0.74%	1.80%	2.36%	-0.23%	-3.55%
Bush 2008-2009	-4.67%	-4.15%	-3.48%	-3.41%	-1.70%	-0.56%
Obama 2012	-0.43%	-0.41%	0.25%	0.31%	0.24%	0.17%

Looking at this, we might yearn for the good old days of the Clinton Administration, even though he was sowing the seeds of the destruction to come by deregulating the banks, which set them on the path of becoming weapons of mass financial destruction.  During the Clinton Administration, every income category gained, with the lowest bracket doing the best of all, except the top 5%.

The Bush Administration was a disaster for all income groups, but was particularly bad for the group nearest poverty, they lost nearly twice as much in family earnings as any other group.  The other groups mostly gained marginally until 2008 - 2009 when the roof caved in on everybody.

The Obama Administration has not improved things much, but things have stabilized in the last year which gives some hope, but the banks are still fighting all attempts at regulation, leaving open the possibility of another crash and bailout.

US Meltdown Day -7 Possibly Postponed 6 weeks

Update: 1:00 PM PDT It looks like Boehner will push to postpone the debt limit crisis for another 6 weeks with a temporary increase.

We are 7 days away from the alarming event.  The US markets will trade Thursday 10/10 and Friday 10/11, but will be closed Monday 10/14 for Columbus Day.  If it comes to pass, Thursday 10/17 will likely be the start of a history changing event.  Most people think it won't happen.

Richard G. Mitchell, an emeritus sociology professor at Oregon State University and author of "Dancing at Armageddon: Survivalism and Chaos in Modern Times,".
"Absolutely zero, if we're talking in whole numbers," Mitchell said of the probability of a default.

The Worlds markets are nervous, and if the meltdown comes to pass, there will be carnage, the IMF says.

"A threat not to pay interest on US government bonds is a threat to blow up the world; it would be a bloody catastrophe," says John Cochrane, professor of finance at the University of Chicago.
"A default of even a few hours on any US bond would undermine a key, long-standing assumption underpinning the world's financial system: that US government debt is risk-free," says Justin Wolfers, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute in Washington. He suggests banks worldwide would immediately mark down the value of US bonds outstanding and would be scared to lend to each other.
- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/another-global-meltdown-at-stake-as-us-plays-fiscal-russian-roulette/story-fnc2jivw-1226733203752#sthash.Bq1iG7XK.dpuf

"While the damage to the U.S. economy from a short shutdown is likely to be limited, a longer shutdown could be quite harmful," the report said. "And even more importantly, a failure to promptly raise the debt ceiling, leading to a U.S. selective default, could seriously damage the global economy and financial system."

 The Wall Street Journal predicts the dominoes toppling in the first hours, when the money carriage turns into a pumpkin.

The first ripples in a rapidly expanding financial crisis will be felt in an obscure but giant sector of the short-term credit markets. 
There, in the $5 trillion-a-day repo market – more formally known as the securities repurchase market – Treasury securities are treated as the equivalent of currency. In tapping it, large Wall Street dealer banks work on the assumption that they can turn their inventory of U.S. government bonds into cash at any given moment, simply by offering the bonds up as collateral to money-market funds and other lenders that participate in this giant short-term funding market. If for just one of those securities this liquidity is turned off, those assumptions go out the window. The ramifications are enormous.
“All of a sudden, people will have to reevaluate their liquidity positions and this can quickly turn into panic,” says Lou Crandall, an analyst at market research firm Wrightson ICAP LLC.

 CNBC reports the survivalist business is booming.

Companies like MRE Star, an Arden, N.C.-based maker of pre-packaged "meals ready to eat," or MREs, are also getting a boost.
"Orders were fairly steady from January to three weeks ago," said company operations manager Ken Lester. "But the orders in September were double any month from January to August."
Lester said MRE Star, which ships thousands of cases of MREs each month to customers that include U.S. embassies abroad, is now seeing larger-sized retail orders from individuals, stemming from concerns surrounding the government shutdown and potential debt default.
"Individual retail orders have been significant in the sense that people are ordering more than a couple of cases. Instead of ordering single cases, which have 12 meals, they're ordering more than a couple days' worth of meals," said Lester. "What's trending is four to 10 cases of MREs."

"A threat not to pay interest on US government bonds is a threat to blow up the world; it would be a bloody catastrophe," says John Cochrane, professor of finance at the University of Chicago. - See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/another-global-meltdown-at-stake-as-us-plays-fiscal-russian-roulette/story-fnc2jivw-1226733203752#sthash.Bq1iG7XK.dpuf

"A threat not to pay interest on US government bonds is a threat to blow up the world; it would be a bloody catastrophe," says John Cochrane, professor of finance at the University of Chicago.
"A default of even a few hours on any US bond would undermine a key, long-standing assumption underpinning the world's financial system: that US government debt is risk-free," says Justin Wolfers, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute in Washington. He suggests banks worldwide would immediately mark down the value of US bonds outstanding and would be scared to lend to each other.
- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/another-global-meltdown-at-stake-as-us-plays-fiscal-russian-roulette/story-fnc2jivw-1226733203752#sthash.Bq1iG7XK.dpuf